Now, Before We Begin

With the first pitch of the Royals' 2014 season just a few hours away, I suppose I should lay down a few of my theories about 2014. There are several, but a few of them are more important than others. What follows will be a short write-up I did of the Royals 2014 offensive projections. I did not include pitching analysis in it because I have deemed pitching largely too difficult to predict. I will, however make a few predictions about pitching at the end.

Royals Likely Statistics

Key- Rising means likely upward trend, Falling means downward, Static means perform at 3 year MLB Averages

Norichika Aoki- .287/.356/.402- STATIC - 758 OPS

Omar Infante- .289/.320/.417- STATIC - 737 OPS

Eric Hosmer- .276/.330/.424- RISING - 754 OPS    If rises, then - .303/.363/.466 for 829 OPS

Billy Butler- .298/.369/.461- STATIC - 830 OPS 

Alex Gordon- .287/.357/.460- STATIC - 817 OPS

Salvador Perez- .308/.337/.459- STATIC - 796 OPS

Mike Moustakas- .246/.297/.381- RISING - 678 OPS    If rises, then - .270/.327/.419 for 746 OPS

Lorenzo Cain- .274/.325/.394- STATIC - 719 OPS

Alcides Escobar- .260/.293/.344- RISING - 637 OPS    If rises, then - .286/.322/.378 for 700 OPS

I would say that Billy and Alex performing at their three year averages is a fairly sure thing. I think they both had poor years last year and that further downward decline would be unexpected for either of them given past production, increased strength of lineup and lack of age-related decline. Eric was performing very well from June onwards and his numbers could end up being even higher than his RISING numbers if he continues his growth towards super stardom. Infante is in line for a decline from last year’s numbers, but not so much of one to merit a FALLING rating from me. In theory, I would expect his OPS to be more around 720. Aoki doesn’t seem like he should show a decline, if anything the spacious outfield of Kauffman could lead to a slightly greater SLG from doubles down the lines. Cain hasn’t done anything great to merit a RISING rating, but his numbers were horrible last year and I expect him to fall fairly in line with his three year averages. I would note that this may be the area where the Royals could hope for the most unexpected growth. Moose’s numbers have been so preposterously horrible that I had to give him a RISING rating just based on the fact that it couldn’t get worse. The same holds true for Esky. The two of them had better find themselves improved or they will soon find themselves unemployed. I expect Moose to have a better season now that he is actively trying to improve his approach at the plate rather than frustratedly trying to whack the ball every at bat. Escobar had a full year, 2012, that was better than his RISING numbers, but I would not be at all surprised to see more of a 5% increase from his 3-year average than the customary 10% that I gave Eric and Mike for theirs. I could very easily see Perez FALLING, but not 10%. Probably more of a 5% drop if anything, but he could very well play to his 3-year average as well. Overall I can only see four possible slots with a total OPS in the 600s and likely two or fewer of them will actually fall into that category. There is an outside shot that four players will have an OPS of 800 or greater, which would be outstanding. The likely breakdown to me of OPS would be: 800+, 3; 750-800, 2; 700-750+, 3; sub-700, 1.

These offensive projections were written earlier in the offseason, but I still stand by them now. Baseball is a game of averages, and what you have averaged over the last relevant sample size is what I believe your offensive ability is. This is generally less true for young players, I think, so predicting the Royals is somewhat more difficult than projecting the Yankees lineups of the mid 2000s when they had only 10 year veterans in their lineup.

Now, as far as the pitching goes, I will only give very basic assessments. Shields-3.15, Vargas- 3.85, Ventura- 3.60, Guthrie- 4.20, Chen- 4.40. I think this is the range that these pitchers will operate in. I would give any them a  + or - of about 0.20 ERA and think that I was in a good place. But, like I said, I find pitching much more difficult to predict. I think the bullpen is likely in line for a drop off in production, but when you had the best bullpen in over a decade last year, that isn't the end of the world. Look for greater usage out of them, but not as much as two years ago. We have durable starters again, so it will likely be directly correlated with Ventura's ability to go deep into games. 

Now, without looking at our schedule, here are some overall predictions.

•  If we make it through the first six weeks of the season above .500 winning percentage, we should be in excellent shape to make the playoffs in my mind. The basis for this prediction is that I fear that a letdown right out of the gate might crush the swagger that this team has right now. We need to at least operate around .500 early in order for them to stay in the confident place of mind for the whole season.
•  I believe that Yordano Ventura having a good start is also crucial. If he can get accustomed to the MLB hitters and gain a high degree of comfort then he should only get better as the season progresses.
•  I think that this is actually the year that Moose breaks out. I'm hesitant to say what I'm about to say, but his spring training numbers show me that he is not the same hitter that he has been. He is striking out less and walking more, or at least he has in that small sample size. He has always had the potential, but appears to have been putting too much pressure on himself after getting into a hole. If both he and Hosmer can somehow make it to an .850 OPS or so, I see no way that we don't make the playoffs unless our pitching is truly terrible.
• I think that the Royals are fairly boned if an injury happens, unless that injury is to Lorenzo Cain or possibly Nori Aoki. We just don't have position depth for extended periods of time. Not that most teams do, but we seem like we are particularly vulnerable from the offensive standpoint. I suppose that an injury to Escobar would also be tolerable given his offensive production.

Well, those are the things I think. I know that I have a bet on this season with a friend. I have the Royals OVER on 83 wins. Tiebreaker if they get exactly 83 is better season record between the Royals and Yankees and the winner gets a dozen wings and two beers at the Peanut. I'm looking forward to this season. I have never been this legitimately excited for baseball and I'm not sure I ever will be again. Then again, maybe this is what being a contender feels like. In that case, I just might get to enjoy this for a few years.

For the Love of the Game

Why do we love baseball?

It might be that baseball can be more of a social event, simply serving as an excuse to spend good times with friends and family. And really, I think this is the most likely reason why America loves baseball.

This is also why baseball is something of a dying sport here in the good ol' US of A. People crave the action and excitement of other sports like basketball, where scores reach triple digits, or football, where someone gets clobbered on nearly every play.

So what kind of people love baseball?

I think that analytical people like baseball. Thoughtful folks who can see that a simple change can result in a tremendous difference. Baseball is a game of what-ifs. That is what attracts me and so many others to this game. It's a constant battle between what you believe should happen and what actually happens. Part of this is an exercise in statistics, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. And really, there are few sports where that is more true than baseball. At some point, every pitcher is going to give up a hit. It's unavoidable. The trick is to have those hits come at times when they hurt you the least. So yeah, a good deal of luck there. The difference between a groundball single that scores a couple runs and a grounder that starts an inning-ending double play can be inches. And yet, players' salaries and front office careers are made or broken by these inches.

This is why I love baseball. I love having an idea of what could or should happen and then finding out if its right or wrong. I suppose that is why I'm a scientist. I want to find out if my theories are correct. Baseball just happens to be the perfect sport for that to happen. With a full day in between games for analysis and whole offseasons where lineups are analyzed and future statistics are estimated left and right. That's all part of the fun, but the real fun starts in four days. Nobody knows what's going to happen. We all just want to see if we were right or wrong.

So this begins my attempt at writing a post every day on the Royals. I think I would like to keep them short, maybe state the score and then say a key moment or something that I think that game showed me. Perhaps it will also chronicle part of my first year of medical school.

Well, I'll be back in four days. Let's play ball.