I was a bit distracted over the weekend and forgot to make a post. It also struck me that there is very little to talk about early in the season because so much of what we would or could say is just overreaction to a small sample size. I will talk a little bit about things that I think we can say from each game.
I went to the home opener, which I believe my last post was just prior to. It was a lot of fun, but very cold. Excitement for Royals baseball is very high right now. It would have likely been even higher if we had swept the Tigers, but you can only ask for so much. I was pleased that we scored so many runs that day. That's basically what I'm expecting of our offense. It was a lot of walks and singles, which can win you games if you're constantly putting pressure on the defense.
Saturday's game was a reminder that Bruce Chen can still be an extremely effective pitcher and will definitely earn his paychecks this year. I still suspect that either he or Guthrie will be moved to the bullpen sometime around midseason to make room for Zimmer or Duffy (or both), but he played well and we scored enough runs to win. Wade Davis tried to blow the game, but Gordon and Perez put the team on their backs (as they are apt to do) and won the game.
Sunday's game was when I first acknowledged that the bullpen terrifies me right now. After Collins demonstrated once again that he is incapable of throwing strikes right now and Bueno came in and let all the inherited runners score, it struck me that I really only have confidence in Holland, Crow and Herrera right now. Everyone else is generally lucky to get through an inning unscathed.
Now, to the present. Today we find out that Collins and Bueno are both going on the DL with nonsensical injuries. I see this as a "get your head straight" period for both of them. It's possible that they do have some nagging injuries, but this is clearly one of those reactionary moves that happens when somebody gets knocked around a couple times. We brought up DoJo and Michael Mariot to replace them. DoJo is kind of like Collins in that he has control issues coupled with extreme strikeout potential. I don't know much about Mariot, except that this is his first trip to the big leagues and he will likely be a little nervous his first time out. I think that Ned would prefer to use him in a lower leverage situation if at all possible, but alas, that is not bullpen life. We have Vargas going today and Ventura tomorrow. Hopefully we can win the first two games of this series to guarantee us at least a .500 record going into our Minnesota and Houston trip. I think we could be in good shape after those games since neither of those teams are very good. It would be nice if our offense could start hitting the ball a little harder, but these things may still come. I'm not yet worried about anyone offensively. Moose hasn't shown much as far as hitting, but his plate discipline has been outstanding. Alcides needs to just be more patient. I normally view him as an automatic out. If we can get away from that, it would be a huge step forward for our offense.
Game 6 ninja edit to make sure I cover every game: Infante gets hit in the head, Royals win. Sucks that he got hit, but we won and he looks like he might not be out for too long!
Monday, April 7, 2014
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
Game 2
Since my last post was during Opening Day, I gave myself a pass and said I didn't have to write again until today. I'm hesitant to make any grand claims about the season, even at this point. We really won't know anything for any reasonable certainty until three weeks from now. That being said, let's address a few things, starting with the only true problem of the first two games.
The pitching is fine. We need to score runs.
There are those who will say that the bullpen blew both of these games. While those people are technically right, it isn't solely the bullpen's fault. It's hard to keep a team off the scoreboard. The bullpen has given up two runs in 4 2/3 innings pitched. That's not horrible. The starters have gone 6.1 and 7 IP respectively. I can't blame the pitching for losing two late-inning games in the fashion that they have. It puts enormous pressure on a bullpen when they have to come into a tied game late and pitch nearly perfectly to escape. Collins did a poor job today, but everyone has bad outings, especially early. The real takeaway from this point is that the Royals need to hit. They just haven't yet. There were a couple good innings, but one was ruined by a dp ball that should never have been swung at and one was ruined by a previous coaching decision, which brings me to point number two.
Ned Yost, please don't pinch run for your all-star, gold glove catcher in the eight inning when he is standing on second with nobody out.
This was the most egregious decision in my mind. It could be argued that pinch running for Billy after his walk was also a bad idea, but Salvy is one of the best players on the team. Don't pinch run for him earlier than the 9th inning in desperation mode. I guess hindsight is 20/20, but I just knew this was going to come back to bite them in the ass. Dyson never even made it to third and the following inning ended when Brett Hayes grounded out with two men in scoring position. The over-willingness to pinch run needs to be addressed by management. If I were Dayton Moore, I would have a conversation with Ned Yost tonight about using complementary players sparingly, instead of whenever you freaking feel like it. Rany Jazayerli noted on Twitter that a change in philosophy from pinch running eagerness to pinch hitting eagerness might be better for the team. I think this might be true, especially in the case of Escobar. There just needs to be more thought given to the situation. There was always a decent chance that Salvy was going to come back up, Ned just needs to stop overthinking and let his lineup do what it does.
As a closing note, the Royals faced probably two of the top 10 pitchers in the American League in their first two games, so I will forgive them for not crushing the ball all over the field. They certainly need to step it up though if they hope to compete this year. Averaging 2.5 runs per game right now which is certainly not going to win you many games, unless the pitching staff all have career years.
The pitching is fine. We need to score runs.
There are those who will say that the bullpen blew both of these games. While those people are technically right, it isn't solely the bullpen's fault. It's hard to keep a team off the scoreboard. The bullpen has given up two runs in 4 2/3 innings pitched. That's not horrible. The starters have gone 6.1 and 7 IP respectively. I can't blame the pitching for losing two late-inning games in the fashion that they have. It puts enormous pressure on a bullpen when they have to come into a tied game late and pitch nearly perfectly to escape. Collins did a poor job today, but everyone has bad outings, especially early. The real takeaway from this point is that the Royals need to hit. They just haven't yet. There were a couple good innings, but one was ruined by a dp ball that should never have been swung at and one was ruined by a previous coaching decision, which brings me to point number two.
Ned Yost, please don't pinch run for your all-star, gold glove catcher in the eight inning when he is standing on second with nobody out.
This was the most egregious decision in my mind. It could be argued that pinch running for Billy after his walk was also a bad idea, but Salvy is one of the best players on the team. Don't pinch run for him earlier than the 9th inning in desperation mode. I guess hindsight is 20/20, but I just knew this was going to come back to bite them in the ass. Dyson never even made it to third and the following inning ended when Brett Hayes grounded out with two men in scoring position. The over-willingness to pinch run needs to be addressed by management. If I were Dayton Moore, I would have a conversation with Ned Yost tonight about using complementary players sparingly, instead of whenever you freaking feel like it. Rany Jazayerli noted on Twitter that a change in philosophy from pinch running eagerness to pinch hitting eagerness might be better for the team. I think this might be true, especially in the case of Escobar. There just needs to be more thought given to the situation. There was always a decent chance that Salvy was going to come back up, Ned just needs to stop overthinking and let his lineup do what it does.
As a closing note, the Royals faced probably two of the top 10 pitchers in the American League in their first two games, so I will forgive them for not crushing the ball all over the field. They certainly need to step it up though if they hope to compete this year. Averaging 2.5 runs per game right now which is certainly not going to win you many games, unless the pitching staff all have career years.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Now, Before We Begin
With the first pitch of the Royals' 2014 season just a few hours away, I suppose I should lay down a few of my theories about 2014. There are several, but a few of them are more important than others. What follows will be a short write-up I did of the Royals 2014 offensive projections. I did not include pitching analysis in it because I have deemed pitching largely too difficult to predict. I will, however make a few predictions about pitching at the end.
Royals Likely
Statistics
Key- Rising means
likely upward trend, Falling means downward, Static means perform at 3 year MLB Averages
Norichika Aoki- .287/.356/.402- STATIC - 758 OPS
Omar Infante- .289/.320/.417- STATIC - 737 OPS
Eric Hosmer- .276/.330/.424- RISING - 754 OPS If rises, then - .303/.363/.466 for 829 OPS
Billy Butler- .298/.369/.461- STATIC - 830 OPS
Alex Gordon- .287/.357/.460- STATIC - 817 OPS
Salvador Perez- .308/.337/.459- STATIC - 796 OPS
Mike Moustakas- .246/.297/.381- RISING - 678 OPS If rises, then - .270/.327/.419 for 746 OPS
Lorenzo Cain- .274/.325/.394- STATIC - 719 OPS
Alcides Escobar- .260/.293/.344- RISING - 637 OPS If rises, then - .286/.322/.378 for 700 OPS
I would say that Billy and Alex performing at their three
year averages is a fairly sure thing. I think they both had poor years last
year and that further downward decline would be unexpected for either of them
given past production, increased strength of lineup and lack of age-related
decline. Eric was performing very well from June onwards and his numbers could
end up being even higher than his RISING numbers if he continues his growth
towards super stardom. Infante is in line for a decline from last year’s
numbers, but not so much of one to merit a FALLING rating from me. In theory, I
would expect his OPS to be more around 720. Aoki doesn’t seem like he should
show a decline, if anything the spacious outfield of Kauffman could lead to a
slightly greater SLG from doubles down the lines. Cain hasn’t done anything
great to merit a RISING rating, but his numbers were horrible last year and I
expect him to fall fairly in line with his three year averages. I would note
that this may be the area where the Royals could hope for the most unexpected
growth. Moose’s numbers have been so preposterously horrible that I had to give
him a RISING rating just based on the fact that it couldn’t get worse. The same
holds true for Esky. The two of them had better find themselves improved or
they will soon find themselves unemployed. I expect Moose to have a better
season now that he is actively trying to improve his approach at the plate rather than frustratedly trying to whack the ball every at bat. Escobar had a full year, 2012, that was better than his RISING numbers, but I would not be at all
surprised to see more of a 5% increase from his 3-year average than the
customary 10% that I gave Eric and Mike for theirs. I could very easily see
Perez FALLING, but not 10%. Probably more of a 5% drop if anything, but he
could very well play to his 3-year average as well. Overall I can only see four
possible slots with a total OPS in the 600s and likely two or fewer of them
will actually fall into that category. There is an outside shot that four
players will have an OPS of 800 or greater, which would be outstanding. The
likely breakdown to me of OPS would be: 800+, 3; 750-800, 2; 700-750+, 3;
sub-700, 1.
These offensive projections were written earlier in the offseason, but I still stand by them now. Baseball is a game of averages, and what you have averaged over the last relevant sample size is what I believe your offensive ability is. This is generally less true for young players, I think, so predicting the Royals is somewhat more difficult than projecting the Yankees lineups of the mid 2000s when they had only 10 year veterans in their lineup.
Now, as far as the pitching goes, I will only give very basic assessments. Shields-3.15, Vargas- 3.85, Ventura- 3.60, Guthrie- 4.20, Chen- 4.40. I think this is the range that these pitchers will operate in. I would give any them a + or - of about 0.20 ERA and think that I was in a good place. But, like I said, I find pitching much more difficult to predict. I think the bullpen is likely in line for a drop off in production, but when you had the best bullpen in over a decade last year, that isn't the end of the world. Look for greater usage out of them, but not as much as two years ago. We have durable starters again, so it will likely be directly correlated with Ventura's ability to go deep into games.
Now, without looking at our schedule, here are some overall predictions.
- If we make it through the first six weeks of the season above .500 winning percentage, we should be in excellent shape to make the playoffs in my mind. The basis for this prediction is that I fear that a letdown right out of the gate might crush the swagger that this team has right now. We need to at least operate around .500 early in order for them to stay in the confident place of mind for the whole season.
- I believe that Yordano Ventura having a good start is also crucial. If he can get accustomed to the MLB hitters and gain a high degree of comfort then he should only get better as the season progresses.
- I think that this is actually the year that Moose breaks out. I'm hesitant to say what I'm about to say, but his spring training numbers show me that he is not the same hitter that he has been. He is striking out less and walking more, or at least he has in that small sample size. He has always had the potential, but appears to have been putting too much pressure on himself after getting into a hole. If both he and Hosmer can somehow make it to an .850 OPS or so, I see no way that we don't make the playoffs unless our pitching is truly terrible.
- I think that the Royals are fairly boned if an injury happens, unless that injury is to Lorenzo Cain or possibly Nori Aoki. We just don't have position depth for extended periods of time. Not that most teams do, but we seem like we are particularly vulnerable from the offensive standpoint. I suppose that an injury to Escobar would also be tolerable given his offensive production.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
For the Love of the Game
Why do we love baseball?
It might be that baseball can be more of a social event, simply serving as an excuse to spend good times with friends and family. And really, I think this is the most likely reason why America loves baseball.
This is also why baseball is something of a dying sport here in the good ol' US of A. People crave the action and excitement of other sports like basketball, where scores reach triple digits, or football, where someone gets clobbered on nearly every play.
So what kind of people love baseball?
I think that analytical people like baseball. Thoughtful folks who can see that a simple change can result in a tremendous difference. Baseball is a game of what-ifs. That is what attracts me and so many others to this game. It's a constant battle between what you believe should happen and what actually happens. Part of this is an exercise in statistics, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. And really, there are few sports where that is more true than baseball. At some point, every pitcher is going to give up a hit. It's unavoidable. The trick is to have those hits come at times when they hurt you the least. So yeah, a good deal of luck there. The difference between a groundball single that scores a couple runs and a grounder that starts an inning-ending double play can be inches. And yet, players' salaries and front office careers are made or broken by these inches.
This is why I love baseball. I love having an idea of what could or should happen and then finding out if its right or wrong. I suppose that is why I'm a scientist. I want to find out if my theories are correct. Baseball just happens to be the perfect sport for that to happen. With a full day in between games for analysis and whole offseasons where lineups are analyzed and future statistics are estimated left and right. That's all part of the fun, but the real fun starts in four days. Nobody knows what's going to happen. We all just want to see if we were right or wrong.
So this begins my attempt at writing a post every day on the Royals. I think I would like to keep them short, maybe state the score and then say a key moment or something that I think that game showed me. Perhaps it will also chronicle part of my first year of medical school.
Well, I'll be back in four days. Let's play ball.
It might be that baseball can be more of a social event, simply serving as an excuse to spend good times with friends and family. And really, I think this is the most likely reason why America loves baseball.
This is also why baseball is something of a dying sport here in the good ol' US of A. People crave the action and excitement of other sports like basketball, where scores reach triple digits, or football, where someone gets clobbered on nearly every play.
So what kind of people love baseball?
I think that analytical people like baseball. Thoughtful folks who can see that a simple change can result in a tremendous difference. Baseball is a game of what-ifs. That is what attracts me and so many others to this game. It's a constant battle between what you believe should happen and what actually happens. Part of this is an exercise in statistics, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. And really, there are few sports where that is more true than baseball. At some point, every pitcher is going to give up a hit. It's unavoidable. The trick is to have those hits come at times when they hurt you the least. So yeah, a good deal of luck there. The difference between a groundball single that scores a couple runs and a grounder that starts an inning-ending double play can be inches. And yet, players' salaries and front office careers are made or broken by these inches.
This is why I love baseball. I love having an idea of what could or should happen and then finding out if its right or wrong. I suppose that is why I'm a scientist. I want to find out if my theories are correct. Baseball just happens to be the perfect sport for that to happen. With a full day in between games for analysis and whole offseasons where lineups are analyzed and future statistics are estimated left and right. That's all part of the fun, but the real fun starts in four days. Nobody knows what's going to happen. We all just want to see if we were right or wrong.
So this begins my attempt at writing a post every day on the Royals. I think I would like to keep them short, maybe state the score and then say a key moment or something that I think that game showed me. Perhaps it will also chronicle part of my first year of medical school.
Well, I'll be back in four days. Let's play ball.
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