Royals Likely
Statistics
Key- Rising means
likely upward trend, Falling means downward, Static means perform at 3 year MLB Averages
Norichika Aoki- .287/.356/.402- STATIC - 758 OPS
Omar Infante- .289/.320/.417- STATIC - 737 OPS
Eric Hosmer- .276/.330/.424- RISING - 754 OPS If rises, then - .303/.363/.466 for 829 OPS
Billy Butler- .298/.369/.461- STATIC - 830 OPS
Alex Gordon- .287/.357/.460- STATIC - 817 OPS
Salvador Perez- .308/.337/.459- STATIC - 796 OPS
Mike Moustakas- .246/.297/.381- RISING - 678 OPS If rises, then - .270/.327/.419 for 746 OPS
Lorenzo Cain- .274/.325/.394- STATIC - 719 OPS
Alcides Escobar- .260/.293/.344- RISING - 637 OPS If rises, then - .286/.322/.378 for 700 OPS
I would say that Billy and Alex performing at their three
year averages is a fairly sure thing. I think they both had poor years last
year and that further downward decline would be unexpected for either of them
given past production, increased strength of lineup and lack of age-related
decline. Eric was performing very well from June onwards and his numbers could
end up being even higher than his RISING numbers if he continues his growth
towards super stardom. Infante is in line for a decline from last year’s
numbers, but not so much of one to merit a FALLING rating from me. In theory, I
would expect his OPS to be more around 720. Aoki doesn’t seem like he should
show a decline, if anything the spacious outfield of Kauffman could lead to a
slightly greater SLG from doubles down the lines. Cain hasn’t done anything
great to merit a RISING rating, but his numbers were horrible last year and I
expect him to fall fairly in line with his three year averages. I would note
that this may be the area where the Royals could hope for the most unexpected
growth. Moose’s numbers have been so preposterously horrible that I had to give
him a RISING rating just based on the fact that it couldn’t get worse. The same
holds true for Esky. The two of them had better find themselves improved or
they will soon find themselves unemployed. I expect Moose to have a better
season now that he is actively trying to improve his approach at the plate rather than frustratedly trying to whack the ball every at bat. Escobar had a full year, 2012, that was better than his RISING numbers, but I would not be at all
surprised to see more of a 5% increase from his 3-year average than the
customary 10% that I gave Eric and Mike for theirs. I could very easily see
Perez FALLING, but not 10%. Probably more of a 5% drop if anything, but he
could very well play to his 3-year average as well. Overall I can only see four
possible slots with a total OPS in the 600s and likely two or fewer of them
will actually fall into that category. There is an outside shot that four
players will have an OPS of 800 or greater, which would be outstanding. The
likely breakdown to me of OPS would be: 800+, 3; 750-800, 2; 700-750+, 3;
sub-700, 1.
These offensive projections were written earlier in the offseason, but I still stand by them now. Baseball is a game of averages, and what you have averaged over the last relevant sample size is what I believe your offensive ability is. This is generally less true for young players, I think, so predicting the Royals is somewhat more difficult than projecting the Yankees lineups of the mid 2000s when they had only 10 year veterans in their lineup.
Now, as far as the pitching goes, I will only give very basic assessments. Shields-3.15, Vargas- 3.85, Ventura- 3.60, Guthrie- 4.20, Chen- 4.40. I think this is the range that these pitchers will operate in. I would give any them a + or - of about 0.20 ERA and think that I was in a good place. But, like I said, I find pitching much more difficult to predict. I think the bullpen is likely in line for a drop off in production, but when you had the best bullpen in over a decade last year, that isn't the end of the world. Look for greater usage out of them, but not as much as two years ago. We have durable starters again, so it will likely be directly correlated with Ventura's ability to go deep into games.
Now, without looking at our schedule, here are some overall predictions.
- If we make it through the first six weeks of the season above .500 winning percentage, we should be in excellent shape to make the playoffs in my mind. The basis for this prediction is that I fear that a letdown right out of the gate might crush the swagger that this team has right now. We need to at least operate around .500 early in order for them to stay in the confident place of mind for the whole season.
- I believe that Yordano Ventura having a good start is also crucial. If he can get accustomed to the MLB hitters and gain a high degree of comfort then he should only get better as the season progresses.
- I think that this is actually the year that Moose breaks out. I'm hesitant to say what I'm about to say, but his spring training numbers show me that he is not the same hitter that he has been. He is striking out less and walking more, or at least he has in that small sample size. He has always had the potential, but appears to have been putting too much pressure on himself after getting into a hole. If both he and Hosmer can somehow make it to an .850 OPS or so, I see no way that we don't make the playoffs unless our pitching is truly terrible.
- I think that the Royals are fairly boned if an injury happens, unless that injury is to Lorenzo Cain or possibly Nori Aoki. We just don't have position depth for extended periods of time. Not that most teams do, but we seem like we are particularly vulnerable from the offensive standpoint. I suppose that an injury to Escobar would also be tolerable given his offensive production.
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